Although moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani won reelection last month, hardliners made significant gains and could win the presidency in the next election, Koichiro Tanaka told Pacific Council members in the seventh installment of the Edgerton Series on Iran and Turkey.

Tanaka is the managing director and president of the Japanese Institute of Middle Eastern Economies (JIME) Center in the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

Tanaka said the recent presidential election in Iran—in which incumbent President Hassan Rouhani was reelected to a second term—had a significant impact domestically, regionally, and for the international community. However, he added, people are already talking about the next presidential election in 2021, in which Rouhani cannot run for office again due to constitutional term limits.

Rouhani is considered a moderate and his opponent, Ebrahim Raisi, is considered a hardline conservative. Tanaka said that although the moderates beat the hardliners this time, the "moderate or pragmatist camp lacks a heavyweight that would be able to contend in the 2021 presidential election and to succeed Rouhani, while the hardliners showed this time that they are able to attract 39 percent of the vote, which is a huge gain for them."

If Raisi is elected president in 2021, it is not yet clear what his foreign policy would look like, Tanaka said. This year, though, Iranians voted to stay the course.

"We might have to be prepared to see another Ahmadinejad with a hardline policy coming out of Tehran after the 2021 election."

Koichiro Tanaka

"We might have to be prepared to see another Ahmadinejad with a hardline policy coming out of Tehran after the 2021 election," said Tanaka. "It’s important now for Rouhani in his second term to show improvements from the opening of the relationship between Tehran and the international community."

That will be difficult to do, Tanaka said, because Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei do not see eye to eye on many issues.

"The president is opting for a more open society and economy based on the reintegration of Iran into the international community, whereas the Supreme Leader believes that not relying on foreign support or capital is the ideal approach to building a resilient economy," said Tanaka.

The Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), between Iran and the P5+1+EU (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union) was part of Rouhani’s opening up of Iran’s society and economy, but it has not gone exactly as planned.
 
"Iran’s economy hasn’t bloomed from the nuclear deal as much as people anticipated, which is one disadvantage Rouhani had in the election," said Tanaka. "Iranians were also hoping that Iran would become a regional power and that its influence would grow in a way that would disrupt the order of especially its Arab neighbors."

"We haven’t seen a real smoking gun that shows that because of the JCPOA the Iranians are feeling more emboldened and that they can literally get away with murder."

Koichiro Tanaka

That said, Tanaka is glad that the JCPOA is still in place.

"It’s good that we haven’t seen a major crisis that would disrupt the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, but I have to keep my fingers crossed because anything could happen," he said. "Not so much on the Iranian side. I’m more concerned about what’s going to happen here in Washington that will eventually tarnish the meaning of the deal. This is not only about the administration, but also about Congress."

Tanaka argued that it would be unwise of Washington to withdraw or tear up the nuclear deal, in part because the fears about Iran have not materialized.

"The so-called destabilizing acts of Iran haven’t changed," he said. "Those were there for years. We haven’t seen a real smoking gun that shows that because of the JCPOA the Iranians are feeling more emboldened and that they can literally get away with murder. It was always the case that the hardliners wanted to shape their surrounding environment in a way that they would feel comfortable."

Ultimately, Tanaka said little would change if the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA because it is a multilateral agreement, but that it would still send the wrong signal.

"If the United States pulls out and Iran tried to restart their nuclear program, they would face a lot of criticism and opposition from the Europeans and other states," he said. "I would strongly recommend that people talk to their governments about the absurdity of tearing apart the JCPOA, or even applying additional sanctions in a way that would hurt the implementation environment of the JCPOA by the Iranians. It could pave the way to a war. It’s a very dangerous path that we are treading now. We need to tell our allies and friends in Washington that it’s not in the best interest of all of us."

The sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western countries are another reason why the Iranian economy has not grown as quickly as they would like. Still, while the two governments do not get along, Tanaka said the Iranian people have favorable opinions of Americans.

"The sanctions still have a large say in how Western countries normalize their trade and investment with Iran," he said. "It’s going to take years if not decades for the revival of the Iranian economy to take place. The majority of Iranians are pro-American and would love to see the Americans back in business inside Iran."

On the security front, Tanaka said that Iran’s involvement in the Syrian civil war is not popular among Iranians because of the cost, both financial and the loss of Iranian lives.

"That narrative became difficult to justify, so the second narrative Iran’s government tells its people is that they have to fight ISIL in Syria and Iraq or ISIL will come to Iran," he said.

ISIL recently carried out terror attacks in Tehran, at the Parliament building and the tomb of its revolutionary founder, killing 12 people. 

Tanaka said that another reason Iran is involved in Syria is because they need access to Hezbollah and Shiites in Lebanon.

"They need the corridor regardless of whether it’s an air or land corridor," he said. "For that to happen they need a government in Damascus that is [sympathetic] to the Iranian position and interests in Lebanon."

"I am very pessimistic about the future of the relationship between Tehran and Washington."

Koichiro Tanaka

This is different from Iran’s strategy in Yemen, where it is fighting a proxy war against Saudi Arabia by backing the Houthi rebels in their fight against the Yemeni government.

"Syria and Yemen are quite different situations for Iran, even for the hardliners," said Tanaka. "Iran doesn’t have a vested interest in Yemen like they do in Lebanon. It’s more about antagonizing their regional rival, Saudi Arabia."

Saudi Arabia, along with several other Arab and North African states, recently cut diplomatic ties with its neighbor Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and having ties to Iran. The row happened shortly after President Trump visited the Middle East.

"I think President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia influenced their behavior toward Qatar," said Tanaka. "The Saudis apparently believe that time is on their side and they can do whatever they want. Or maybe they think their views are now totally understood by the president of the United States. The reason given by the Saudis against Qatar is reminiscent of the ones they’ve been charging against Iran. All of a sudden you have a friend, neighbor, brother state that you’ve been kissing and hugging until quite recently. Then all of a sudden—although the problem is deep rooted—just several days after the visit of President Trump the Saudis change their attitude and call Qataris names. This is not diplomacy."

Tanaka said that he is not hopeful about the future of U.S.-Iranian relations.

"Realistically, I cannot imagine President Trump shaking hands or sharing a kebab with the Iranian president, despite the fact that he has said several times on record that he is ready to meet with the North Korean leader," said Tanaka. "He has never mentioned direct negotiations with the Iranians. From that perspective, and considering a hardliner might win the 2021 Iranian presidential election, I am very pessimistic about the future of the relationship between Tehran and Washington."
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