With more than 12 million Syrian people displaced, the Middle East is experiencing the worst refugee crisis since World War II. How can the United States help? According to the Chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, we should start with a no-fly zone over the Levant. 

“Let’s just chase the Syrian helicopters out of the sky – that is not hard to do – and simply say ‘this is now a no-fly zone,’” Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA) said at the Pacific Council’s annual Members Weekend conference on October 10.

“We have seven million Syrians displaced within the country in these refugee camps that are being bombed, and we have five million outside of the country in neighboring states, with some of them heading to Europe,” said Royce. When asked whether the United States has a moral obligation to help relocate displaced Syrian refugees, Royce argued that doing so may actually be against U.S. interests because it would encourage the regime that is pushing them out.

“It is probably not in our overall interest to allow the Shia minority to drive out the Sunni majority out of Syria.”

“It is probably not in our overall interest to allow the Shia minority to drive out the Sunni majority out of Syria,” argued Royce. Doing so, according to the Chairman, would “reward ethnic cleansing” and lead to a replacement of Syrian people with Hezbollah fighters and their Iranian counterparts. The major worry, according to Royce, is allowing the precedent to stand in the region that a regime can wipe out an entire people because the West will be there to take them. 

The Representative from California offered a different solution to the ongoing crisis: the United States should engage with allies like Turkey and Jordan to set up a comprehensive no-fly zone over Syria and arm the Kurdish Peshmerga with the tools necessary to defeat ISIL. The Kurdish forces in the region, which number more than 160,000 fighters, are facing ISIL “without mortars, without artillery, and without anti-tank weapons,” Royce explained.

The United States should also send a special envoy to Moscow to convince Putin to pull back, Royce said, arguing that Russia's recent foray into the conflict has become a major destabilizing factor. He noted: “My staff worked with intelligence agencies to look at the attacks over the last month. Ninety percent of Assad’s attacks (made up of Russian-built equipment) were on markets, hospitals, and schools. Eighty-five percent of attacks have been on the Free Syrian Army, and only fifteen percent have been on an ISIL position.” 

The United States should just accept the annexation of Crimea as “fait accompli,” argued Royce, and should also refuse to accept Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia into NATO.

Convincing Putin to pull back from Syria won’t be easy, said Royce, but if Washington was to offer him the right terms on Ukraine and Crimea, he might agree to it. The United States should just accept the annexation of Crimea as “fait accompli,” argued Royce, and should also refuse to accept Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia into NATO. If Putin in turn allows Ukraine to trade freely without restrictions, the United States would remove its sanctions on Russia. Royce told Pacific Council members that Putin might be more amenable to cooperation on issues in the Middle East in the aftermath of those deals.

On the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

With a congressional vote on the massive Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement likely to happen in early 2016, debate has intensified over what proponents call the “most progressive trade deal ever.” While many on the Hill are yet to pick a side on the deal, Rep. Royce is clear where he stands: “The Trans-Pacific Partnership is very important,” said Royce. “Trade has lifted a billion people out of poverty.” He highlighted in particular the lessons of the 1930s, where high tariffs imposed by countries around the world helped drive what was a regional depression in America into a great global depression.

Royce was vociferous in his defense of the TPP, and of free trade in particular. “There are 40 million jobs in this country that are dependent on trade right now,” Royce explained. “It is a third of our GDP.” The driving force behind the need to approve the TPP is not merely that it will help the U.S. economy, since as Royce noted, “[American] tariffs are already pretty low.” Rather, there’s one very basic reason to accept this trade agreement: China.

There’s one very basic reason to accept this trade agreement: China.

Royce noted that because the TPP does not include China, and since China does not “play by the same rules” as the rest of the world, America is forced “to offset a situation where China takes the wheel away from us in driving trade.” Royce argued that implementing a massive trade agreement among these countries allows the United States to drive trade liberalization while protecting intellectual property. Countries in Asia and Europe will be more inclined to work with Washington over Beijing, said Royce, because with the latter they “perceive the theft of intellectual property and cheating in terms of contract enforcement.”

On winning the information war against Russia

Royce minced no words when it came to talking about the effectiveness of Russian messaging services around the world, and Moscow’s supposed control of the Russia Today (RT) Network. “The Russian budget for RT is almost limitless,” explained Royce. “Putin enjoys eighty percent support in Russia since he has closed down all competing television and radio operations.”

 “Putin enjoys eighty percent support in Russia since he has closed down all competing television and radio operations.”

The only way for the West to respond effectively to this, said Royce, is to “take Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Europe, Radio Liberty, and our Middle East broadcasting, and combine [them], because that will give us more resources to deploy.” Royce praised Cold War methods of messaging against Moscow. “What worked… in the 80s [was] when we had that theme of political pluralism, tolerance, democratic systems as a constant educational program combined with what was really going on in the world, told straight as it was happening.” If the West is to change the hearts and minds of people around the world, Royce said, we need to return to the old way of doing things.

On the Iran nuclear deal

Royce worried about the nuclear accord struck in Vienna, saying that the Iranians and President Rouhani see the terms set in the deal differently than the United States. “We have a conflict of visions between how we in the United States have interpreted the treaty and how Rouhani interpreted the treaty,” said the House Foreign Affairs Chairman.

The big sticking point between the two interpretations of the deal surrounds the transfer and importation of arms. According to Royce, Washington thought that the nuclear deal meant that Rouhani would comply with an arms embargo on transferring weapons to Hezbollah or Hamas, and likewise on importing weapons technology from Russia to feed into Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). Iran has a plan to transfer Precision Guidance Systems to Hezbollah, which will allow Hezbollah to target individual buildings in Tel-Aviv, for instance. Royce said that they have, so far, transferred 90,000 rockets and missiles to the militant group.

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Pacific Council Director Robert Eckert, Chairman Emeritus of Mattel, conducted the October 10 interview with Rep. Ed Royce.